ECONOMIC & TRADE DEVELOPMENT NEWS

Friday, 30 November 2012

Africa remains ‘attractive Foreign Investment destination’

RMB Analyst Celeste Fauconnier

At a conference within the week, Rand Merchant Bank (RMB), said South Africa remains the most attractive country in Africa for foreign direct investment, followed by Egypt, Nigeria, Ghana and Tunisia.
RMB analyst Celeste Fauconnier said African countries dominated the list of the world’s fastest-growing economies and were increasingly seen as good places to invest.
“Between 1995 and 2012, Africa has done phenomenally well,” she said. “However, African countries are still a far cry from the leading developed nations of the world.”

According to Ms Fauconnier, investors saw great opportunities for foreign investment, especially in the resources sector, in sub-Saharan Africa.


She said in terms of business and investment, South African companies now operated in every country in Africa.

Thursday, 29 November 2012

Today’s London Gold Market Report

Gold's Comex Drop "A Test of Downside Interest", Fat Finger Trade "Not to Blame" for Selloff

BullionVault from Ben Traynor


WHOLESALE gold bullion prices rose to $1725 an ounce Thursday morning, recovering some ground after yesterday's sharp drop during US trading, as stocks, commodities and the Euro also gained and US Treasury bond prices fell.

Silver climbed to $33.87 an ounce, 2.7% up on yesterday's low but 0.9% down on this week so far.

Gold fell more than $30 an ounce in an hour Wednesday, dropping 1.5% in just a few minutes. Gold trading volume on the New York Comex futures and options exchange was more than double its 250 day average, according to Reuters.

Silver also fell Wednesday, with Bloomberg reporting the highest silver Comex volumes since May 2011, although silver rebounded more quickly than gold and was back to within a few cents of its pre-crash level by the time US markets closed.

World Bank to triple investment in post-conflict Africa


The World Bank's investment arm plans to triple its lending in post-conflict African countries by 2017, a senior official said on Wednesday.

The bank's International Finance Corporation (IFC) has invested a record $3.7-billion in Africa this year, up from about $700-million in 2006, and is present in 30 countries, 18 of which are emerging from conflict.

Nena Stoiljkovic, IFC's vice president of business advisory services, said it would seek to tap in to the high economic growth in many of these nations after years of under investment during civil strife.

Wednesday, 28 November 2012

Today’s London Gold Market Report


Gold Falls to One-Week Low, Democrats "Showing Cockiness" Over Fiscal Cliff

BullionVault from Ben Traynor

THE DOLLAR gold price fell to a one-week low below $1735 per ounce Wednesday, as stocks and commodities also edged lower while the Dollar and US Treasuries gained despite ongoing uncertainty over how the US will address its deficit problems.

Silver fell to $33.73 an ounce, also a one-week low.

"We are bullish silver, looking for a retracement back to the $35.35 [an ounce] high from early October," says the latest technical analysis from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta.

Bullion held to back shares in the world's largest gold exchange traded fund SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) rose to a new all-time high yesterday at 1345.8 tonnes.

Kenya, South Africa and Morocco top Africa's investment list


Kenya has been ranked among the top destinations for foreign direct investments in Middle East and Africa, thanks to the on-going investments in infrastructure.
The latest study by FDI Intelligence, a research arm of the London based Financial Times newspaper, ranks Kenya sixth in the Middle East and Africa, and third in Africa after South Africa and Morocco.
The report released last week shows that Kenya attracted 55 projects last year compared with South Africa’s 154 and Morocco’s 70.
The number of projects coming to Kenya rose 77 per cent from 2010, pushing it ahead of Nigeria, and Egypt.

Tuesday, 27 November 2012

Today's London Gold Market Report


Comex Options Expiry "Could See Gold Push to $1800", Markets "Unimpressed" with "Very Ambitious" Greek Debt Deal

BullionVault from Ben Traynor


THE DOLLAR gold price fell below $1750 an ounce Tuesday morning, though it remained near to where it started the week, as stock markets recovered yesterday's losses following news of a deal on Greece's debt burden.

"We continue to be bullish so long as gold holds above the $1705 low from mid-November," says the latest technical analysis from Scotia Mocatta.

Over in New York, the difference between bullish and bearish contracts held by Comex gold futures and options traders, the so-called speculative net long, rose for the second week running in the week ended last Tuesday, data published last night by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

Monday, 26 November 2012

Today’s London Gold Market Report


Gold Dips Ahead of Greek Debt Talks, Indian Central Bank to Offer Investors "Dematerialized Gold"

BullionVault from Ben Traynor

U.S. DOLLAR prices to buy gold fell back below $1750 an ounce, a few Dollars below where they closed last week following Friday's rally, while stocks and commodities also edged lower and US Treasuries gained ahead of further discussion on Greece at today's meeting of Euro finance ministers.

Silver meantime dipped briefly below $34 an ounce this morning, though it remained within 1% of Friday's one-month high.

On Friday, spot gold rallied in US trading to close above $1750 an ounce for the first time in over a month. One analyst this morning called Friday's move a "technical breakout" enabled by "illiquid trading conditions" a day after Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday in the US.

"We'd like to see prices above $1760 to confirm the movem," adds a note from ANZ.

Growing role for Africa in the "Golden Age of Gas"

Elias Pungong

Opportunities will extend in most areas to the smaller, local E&P players as well, most often in partnerships with larger, more-experienced players.

With open access and attractive leasing terms, Africa’s oil and natural gas resources continue to attract a broad spectrum of investors, according to a new report from Ernst & Young Natural gas in Africa – The frontiers of the Golden Age http://www.ey.com/ecimages/pdf.png (pdf, 2.5mb)  launched at Africa Oil & Gas Week.
Elias Pungong, Ernst & Young’s Oil & Gas Leader for Africa says, “Natural gas development holds tremendous opportunity for Africa. It can be a primary driver of economic growth and broader social development, as well as a major spur for local employment growth and infrastructure development.”

The big future for African gas lies in the East of Africa
The report spotlights Africa’s rapidly evolving natural gas sector, and while Algeria, Nigeria, Egypt and Libya are identified as holding significant reserves, the production of gas is considerably lower in these countries. More recently, the sector’s growth has been concentrated in West Africa, with the huge associated gas resources that accompanied the deep water oil boom, led by Nigeria and Angola. While the West African gas growth will continue as flaring is reduced and local gas infrastructure is developed, the big future for African gas lies in the East of Africa with the massive offshore gas discoveries in East Africa, particularly in Mozambique and Tanzania.

Friday, 23 November 2012

Africa the China of 30 years ago, analyst argues


Several Chinese analysts would relate the current economic situation of Africa to that of China 30 years ago, when foreign capital started to target a market with significant potential, says advisory firm Frontier Advisory China analyst Jinghao Lu.
Today, Africa offers tremendous opportunities to Chinese companies that are generally new to the global market, owing to its rich natural resources, uncultivated arable land, underdeveloped manufacturing sector and growing middle class, as well as loose regulatory environment, he explains.
“Africa is becoming an attractive place for Chinese investment, as it shows tremendous opportunities for growth, despite having a relatively high-risk investment environment,” he notes.
The first wave of Chinese investment into Africa was led by State-owned construction, mining and oil corporations. Many of these companies entered through governmental bilateral agreements that were generally outlined as infrastructure provision in exchange for natural resources.

Thursday, 22 November 2012

Today’s London Gold Market Report


Bundesbank Sold Gold "Just for Commemorative Coins", Silver Industrial Demand Forecast to Rebound in 2013

BullionVault from Ben Traynor

THE U.S. DOLLAR gold price traded close to $1730 an ounce during Thursday morning's London session, holding onto gains made a day earlier, as European stock markets edged higher, with US markets closed today for Thanksgiving.

"We believe that the German Bundesbank's sale of 4.2 tonnes of gold was intended solely for producing commemorative coins," says today's commodities note from Commerzbank, referring to International Monetary Fund figures published Wednesday showing October's buying and selling of gold by central banks.

"By its own account, the Bundesbank keeps 7 tonnes of gold ready each year for the production of coins, gold which it sells to Germany's Federal Ministry of Finance. In October 2011, the Bundesbank had sold 4.7 tonnes of gold for this purpose."

APM Terminals Proposes New Nigerian Mega-Port Project

Badagry port future image Phase 3

Lagos, Nigeria – APM Terminals and its consortium partners have announced plans to develop a new greenfield mega-port project and Free Trade Zone at Badagry in Nigeria’s Lagos State, 55 km (34 miles) west of Apapa and the Port of Lagos on the Benin-Lagos Expressway. At full build-out, the deep-water full-service port will be one of the largest in Africa with 7 km of quay and 1,000 hectares (2,470 acres) of dedicated yard, and will include state-of the art facilities for container, bulk, liquid bulk, Ro/Ro and general cargo as well as oil and gas operations support and a barge terminal. Plans for the adjoining Badagry Free Trade Zone will include a power plant, oil refinery, industrial park and warehousing and Inland Container Deport functions. The first phase of the project is scheduled to open in 2016.
“We are actively working with state and federal governments on the permission process” stated APM Terminals Africa-Middle East Regional CEO Peder Sondergaard, adding that “the Nigerian Ports Authority, Lagos State and the Nigerian federal Government have been supportive and positive”.

Wednesday, 21 November 2012

$1bn Lumwana copper project raises Zambian hopes of resuscitating its economy


Zambia, once viewed as a Central African economic power house, wants to reclaim some of its former glory as Africa’s biggest greenfield copper project, Lumwana, is commissioned.
As recently as the 1960s, Zambia was the world’s biggest producer of copper but its position was usurped by Chile, about which Anglo American CEO Cynthia Carroll said in Santiago this month: “The success of Chile in establishing a stable macro-economic environment and attractive investment climate is the envy of the world.”
Zambia needs to take note of that sort of comment to improve its position as an investment destination and encourage foreign direct investment (FDI) once again.
Zambia’s 1964 independence saw the start of its FDI decline, which reached a crisis point in the 1990s. All the while, Chile had been allowed to streak ahead as plans to develop Zambia’s mineral-rich North West province, which forms part of the renowned African Copper Belt and houses massive copper deposits, gathered fruit and vegetable crusher dust.

Today’s London Gold Market Report


"Technical Reasons" Blamed for Lack of Agreement on Greece, Brazil and Kazakhstan Add to Gold Reserves, Germany Sells

BullionVault from Ben Traynor

WHOLESALE gold bullion prices climbed back above $1725 an ounce Wednesday morning in London, making up some ground lost the previous day, while stocks and the Euro recovered losses made in Asian trading immediately after the news that European policymakers had failed to reach a deal on Greece.

"Upside targets [for gold] are now found around the $1750 mark and then around the $1800 level where the gold price has stalled on three occasions in the past year," says Axel Rudolph, senior technical analyst at Commerzbank.

Over in Asia, "physical [gold] demand is very, very bad," according to one trader in Singapore quoted by newswire Reuters this morning.

Tuesday, 20 November 2012

Today’s London Gold Market Report


Euro Holding Gains Despite France Downgrade, Indian Banks Banned from Lending for Gold
Purchases

BullionVault from Ben Traynor

SPOT MARKET prices for buying gold traded above $1730 an ounce throughout Tuesday morning in London, up 1% for the week so far, while the Euro also held onto gains made yesterday despite news that a second ratings agency this year has downgraded France.

Gold rose by more than $20 during Monday's trading, following reports that a deal may be done between US politicians on the so-called fiscal cliff.

"People are feeling a bit at ease about the budget talks in Congress," says Yuichi Ikemizu at Standard Bank in Tokyo.

"But gold is in a tight range between $1,700 and $1,740 until we see a result of the talks at the year end, as the 'fiscal cliff' is the focus of the market."

Investment in Palm Oil


The growing global demand for palm oil
Investments in agricultural land in West Africa has been promoted as it allows investors to ensure higher productivity of food grains which can meet the local demand for food and it also allows investors to harvest food grains for the purpose of export.
The land rates are increasing in the region at a contract rate and investors can also earn through land rents which is generated by renting the land to farmers or private management companies which are involved in plantation or agriculture based projects.
Palm oil plantation
The investments in palm oil plantation projects are increasing in West Africa due to a number of reasons – the cost of crude is increasing, the increase in price of vegetable oil and increasing demand for agricultural land investments. The growing demand for fossil fuels raises the demand for bio-fuels. The increased use of palm oil for the production of bio-fuel has been a major cause in the rise in price of palm oil.

Monday, 19 November 2012

Oil & Gas Afren –a unique African approach


Equities.com -- While the African oil and gas sector is still dominated by international majors, independents are now claiming bigger stakes both upsteam and downstream. Perhaps the best example of an independent making it big in Africa is Afren.
Afren can rightly lay claim to being the leading independent partnering with indigenous capacity in Africa. The company was launched in a small office with two employees in 2004. Today the company's portfolio has grown rapidly to 28 assets across 12 countries, producing over 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and is on track for cash flows in 2012 of around $1bn. From its solid base in Nigeria, Afren moved into Iraq's Kurdistan region and East Africa ahead of the pack.
The secret of its success has been its partnership-based company business model. The company's founders encouraged by the government of Nigeria leaning towards the indigenisation of its oil resources, established partnerships with a host of local companies, including Amni International, Oriental Energy Resources and First Hydrocarbon Nigeria (FHN), bringing in capital, technical skills and other resources. This has not only been a huge boost to local companies but communities around the areas of operations have greatly benefited as well.

Today’s London Gold Market Report


Gold Starts Week Higher, Deal on Fiscal Cliff "Could Be Agreed Within Weeks" 


BullionVault from Ben Traynor

SPOT MARKET gold bullion prices hovered close to $1725 an ounce during this morning's London trading, holding gains made overnight in Asia, as stocks and commodities also recovered some ground lost last week, after news that a deal may be achieved in time to avoid so-called fiscal cliff of US tax rises and spending cuts currently scheduled for the start of 2013.

Silver bullion rallied back above $32.70 an ounce, recovering Friday's losses, while US Treasury bond prices fell along with the Dollar.

"[Silver] is still respecting its long term uptrend, [but] momentum has been very uninspiring," says the latest technical analysis from bullion bank Scotiabank.

Friday, 16 November 2012

Today’s London Gold Market Report


Gold "Being Liquidated for Cash" as Stock Markets Fall Ahead of Fiscal Cliff Negotiations

BullionVault from Ben Traynor

WHOLESALE gold bullion prices fell below $1710 an ounce Friday morning in London, dropping below that level for the second day in a row, as stocks, commodities and the Euro all fell and US Treasuries gained ahead of negotiations among US lawmakers about the so-called fiscal cliff.

"Gold is being seen increasingly as a source of cash," says Simon Weeks, head of precious metals at bullion bank Scotia Mocatta.

"Liquidation of gold can cover losses elsewhere."

Silver bullion meantime fell to $32.19 an ounce.

On the currency markets, the US Dollar Index, which measures the Dollar's strength against other major currencies, touched a 10-week high as the Euro's recent rally stalled.

KPMG on African trail with $100m to spend


BD Live by Sure Kamhunga -- AFRICA is calling, says KPMG, the professional services group which plans to invest $100m over the next five years to strengthen its advisory capacity.
KPMG, with practises in 33 countries in Africa, has already integrated its operations so it can offer a seamless service to clients, says Moses Kgosana, who heads the Africa business of KPMG.
He is assisted by Yunus Suleman, chairman of KPMG Africa and SA, and Anthony Thunstrom, the chief operating officer in charge of the global Africa investment program.
"We saw a gap in our structure and we have integrated the business so that we link both the geographies of the markets we serve and the languages (spoken there) to ensure that we can offer a seamless service," Mr Kgosana says. "(Therefore) six months ago we consolidated the KPMG (Africa) leadership team so that we have one integrated Africa practice under one leader."
The local heads of KPMG operations still retain operational autonomy and are responsible for meeting revenue and business targets. But they will work from the same vision of consolidating KPMG’s Africa footprint.

Thursday, 15 November 2012

Today’s London Gold Market Report


Eurozone Enters Recession, Worldwide Gold Demand Down in Q3

BullionVault from Ben Traynor

THE DOLLAR gold price drifted lower to $1720 an ounce during Thursday morning's London session, around ten Dollars down on the week, as stocks and the Euro also drifted lower following the release of weak economic growth data from the Eurozone.

The silver price dropped below $32.60 an ounce, more-or-less exactly where it started the week, while other industrial commodities edged higher.

"We like the price action of silver and think there is a good chance of another leg up," says the latest technical analysis from bullion bank Scotiabank.

Prices for longer dated US Treasury bonds meantime ticked lower this morning, as did prices for German bunds, while longer-dated UK gilts saw gains.

International firms show interest in listing locally in Africa

Mary Gormley BNY Mellon

International companies with a presence in Africa are increasingly looking to list on the local stock exchanges to gain access to African institutional money, says BNY Mellon.
The bank has already done two so-called reverse depositary receipts in Africa. This means a foreign company with presence in Africa has issued its shares on a local stock exchange in local currency.
Depositary receipts (DRs) are a financial instrument used by banks to allow foreign companies to publically trade their shares abroad and list them on local stock exchanges.
Usually, these are used by companies from emerging markets looking to make their stock easily available to foreign investors. Through a DR, these companies can list their shares on a globally recognised stock exchange.

Wednesday, 14 November 2012

Today's London Gold Market Report


Gold "Consolidating Last Week's Move", Obama "Will Need to Tax Wealthy", UK Economy Faces "Sluggish" Growth and Higher Inflation

BullionVault from Ben Traynor

U.S. DOLLAR gold prices drifted lower to $1722 an ounce this morning in London, slightly down from last week's close, while stock markets also fell along with US Treasury bonds as US policymakers continue to discuss how to deal with the so-called fiscal cliff.

"Gold is consolidating last week's strong up leg from $1673 to $1739," says the latest technical analysis from bullion dealer Scotiabank.

Silver prices edged down to $32.38 an ounce, also slightly down on last week's close.

Broad commodities were little changed on the day by lunchtime in London, while on the currency markets, the Euro extended yesterday's gains against the Dollar following news that Greece has successfully raised the €5 billion it needs to cover a bond repayment this week.

Forty unions in 23 countries meantime were expected to take part in anti-austerity strikes across Europe today, according to the European Trade Union Confederation.

Africa: Canada Eyes African Resources Amid Shrinking Foreign Aid

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper (l)
 & Senegal President Macky Sall (r)

AllAfrica by Fawza Sheikh  -- Toronto — With an initial focus on oil-producing Nigeria and mineral-rich Ghana, Ottawa is bolstering its trade strategy in Africa, but some within the international development and economic communities have expressed concerns about Canada's approach.
The Canadian government was criticized for cutting foreign aid a few years ago, and in particular when Africa amassed some of the greatest hits.
The Canadian International Development Agency ended bilateral programming in countries where aid efforts are hindered by high operating costs, including Rwanda, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi and Niger. The agency also decided to reduce and concentrate its bilateral programming in five states, including Mozambique, Ethiopia and Tanzania.
Yet last month, after years of viewing the continent as mainly a foreign aid recipient, the Conservative government announced a trade mission slated for next January encompassing the extractive resource industries and the infrastructure sectors related to energy, power generation and mining.

Tuesday, 13 November 2012

London Gold Market Report


Euro Spikes from 2-Month Low Following Greek Bailout Story, Gold Deposits "Getting Harder to Find" says Barrick

BullionVault from Ben Traynor

PRICE FOR gold bullion on the wholesale market rose to $1730 an ounce this morning in London, after drifting lower overnight, as the Euro jumped half-a-cent against the Dollar following a report that the German government is considering a plan to speed up the payment of bailout money to Greece.

"There had been a decoupling in the relationship between gold and the Dollar in terms of the daily trading range, and now we are seeing a readjustment," says LGT Capital Management analyst Bayram Dincer.

German tabloid Bild reports that the German government is proposing to bundle the next three tranches of Greece's bailout into one payment of around €44 billion, citing government sources. Greece has to meet a €5 billion debt repayment this week.

Earlier in the day, stock markets and the Euro fell to two-month lows after a public disagreement between policymakers over Greece and news that Greece's next bailout tranche, worth €31.3 billion, will be delayed for another week.

Africa may be the 'ultimate frontier market' for investors - in a good way


Investment Europe by Caroline Allen -- David Mataen’s book 'Africa: The Ultimate Frontier Market' offers some intriguing views on what might be achieved if recent trends in stability and productivity continue.
World interest in Africa is warming up, and historically, that has been shown to be not an entirely good thing. So while the premise of David Mataen's book is correct, there is an immediate sense of déjà vu, as well as trepidation. Perhaps, as enthusiasts will always assert, this time is different. Mataen certainly thinks and hopes so, in this practical, positive book.
It is partly a skim through recent history, part academic paper, with a journalistic format peppered by an insider's observations, as well as the meticulous data and charts one would expect from an one-time investment banker and management consultant.

Monday, 12 November 2012

Land reforms in Africa top agenda


Last month’s Eighth African Development Forum in Addis Ababa addressed one of Africa’s emerging concerns:- large-scale land-based investments.
Land remains a crucial resource for development.
It’s key to economic growth, food security and livelihoods in many jurisdictions. This is more so in Africa where most economies are agricultural and livestock-production driven.
The transformation of Africa’s economy in the 21st century therefore largely depends on good land governance and the sustainable exploitation of land based natural resources.
The consensus statement from the Forum noted that Africa holds about 60 per cent of the world’s total non-cultivated land area.
This abundance has contributed to the recent upsurge of local and international interest and investments in land.
This interest is well captured in the Framework and Guidelines for Land Policy in Africa, which dubs it “the second scramble for Africa”.

Where Now for China's Gold Market?


BullionVault by Adrian Ash


The latest from the London Bullion Market Association conference in Hong Kong...

THE ANNUAL conference of the London Bullion Market Association – the "premier professional forum for the world's bullion market" as Haywood Cheung of the 100-year old Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange put it this morning – is taking place right now in Hong Kong.

The timing could hardly seem more urgent. Hong Kong has always had great importance to the global precious metals market – particularly since the 1970s, as several speakers noted on Monday, day one of the LBMA's two-day 2012 conference. But while Hong Kong's dominance as Asia's bullion hub may yet be challenged (it beat off "stiff competition" to be this year's Asian LBMA venue, Cheung writes in the South China Morning Post; Singapore removed general sales tax from gold last month, and now its gleaming new freeport vaults are already booked out, with a second facility being discussed), it's Hong Kong which remains "the gateway to China".

And China remains the big prize for the record 700+ delegates from 279 different miners, refiners, banks, dealers and secure logistics providers gathered here from 39 countries.


Friday, 9 November 2012

London Gold Market Report


Gold Headed for Weekly Gain "Despite Dollar Strength" as Survey Shows Most Traders Bullish on Gold

Ben Traynor, BullionVault

SPOR PRICES in the wholesale gold bullion market traded above $1730 an ounce Friday morning in London, having earlier touched a two-week high, while stocks fell and the Dollar and US Treasury bonds gained, with analysts suggesting weak growth and monetary policy are likely to persist.

Silver bullion traded close to $32.30 an ounce for most of this morning, 4.3% up on the week, while oil and copper prices ticked lower.

Fitch Gives Morocco a BBB Rating

North Africa Post -- Global rating agency Fitch has affirmed Morocco’s Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘BBB-’, Long-term local currency IDR at ‘BBB’, and Short-term foreign currency IDR at ‘F3′. The agency has also given the North African Kingdom a “stable outlook” and affirmed the country ceiling at ‘BBB’.
Morocco’s ‘BBB-’ rating is supported by a strong macroeconomic performance, as evidenced by low inflation, sustained GDP growth and general government debt (39% of GDP) in line with rating peers, says Fitch. Recent success in managing the political transition has underlined Morocco’s political stability. Economic dependence on Europe (60% of current account receipts, 80% of foreign tourists and remittances and 50% of exports in 2011) and on oil imports contributed to higher fiscal and current account deficits in 2011 and represent significant downside risks. However, Fitch expects these ‘twin deficits’ to begin narrowing this year, supported by recent and prospective measures to reduce fuel subsidies, and supporting the Stable Outlook.

Thursday, 8 November 2012

London Gold Market Report


Gold "Living Up to Safe Haven Reputation", Fiscal Cliff Policies "Will Reduce Value of Stocks"

from Ben Traynor, BullionVault

SPOT MARKET gold prices hovered just below $1720 an ounce Thursday morning in London – 2.4% up on last week's close – while stocks recovered some ground following losses yesterday, and the Dollar ticked higher, as central banks in the UK and Europe left monetary policy unchanged.

Silver prices hovered close to $32 an ounce – 3.4% up on the week so far – while other commodities edged higher. US Treasury bond prices gained while those for UK and German government debt fell.

"Gold is holding up well in the face of Dollar strength yesterday and today," says commodities strategist Walter de Wet at Standard Bank.

A day earlier, the Dow Jones saw its biggest one-day drop this year on Wednesday, falling 2.4%.

The S&P 500 also fell 2.4%, the biggest one-day drop since the start of June, as focus shifted to Congress's prospects of avoiding the so-called fiscal cliff of tax cut expiries and spending cuts currently scheduled for the start of 2013.

Policies aimed at avoiding the fiscal cliff would mean that "the marginal income-tax rate is probably going to go up...from 35% to 40%, capital gains from 15% to 20%, dividends from 15% to who knows where," Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer at world's largest bond fund Pimco told Bloomberg Tuesday.

African trio impresses Moody’s


BUJA — MOODY’s Investors Service has assigned new credit ratings to Nigeria, Kenya and Zambia’s domestic and foreign-currency debt, citing the sub-Saharan African nations’ economic resilience and growth.
Nigeria, the region’s second-largest economy and biggest oil producer, was given a Ba3 rating, three levels below investment grade. Kenya and Zambia were both allocated a B1 rating, one step below Nigeria’s, and all three were placed on a stable outlook, Moody’s said on Wednesday. Rival agency Standard & Poor’s said separately it had raised Nigeria’s rating one level to BB-from B+.
Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow 7.1% this year, underpinned by its oil wealth, large size and the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund, according to Moody’s.
Kenya, East Africa’s biggest economy, has weathered multiple shocks and has shown resilience in recent years, while implementing sweeping governance changes under a new constitution introduced two years ago. Zambia’s rating is supported by political stability in Africa’s biggest copper producer and growth of 7.3% this year, Moody’s said.

Wednesday, 7 November 2012

London Gold Market Report


Obama Win "Means Loose Monetary Policy Will Stay", Indian Gold Demand "Abysmal" Ahead of Festivals

BullionVault from Ben Traynor

SPOT PRICES for buying gold fell back to $1720 an ounce Wednesday morning in London, after hitting two-week highs following news of the re-election of Barack Obama as US president.

"Gold is making significant gains on the back of a weak US Dollar," said this morning's commodities note from Commerzbank.

Prices for buying silver fell back below $32 an ounce after they touched their highest level in a week.

"Obama's re-election is likely to boost expectations of continued easing by the Fed," says Junya Tanase, chief currency strategist at JPMorgan Chase in Tokyo. 

"We forecast gold will end the year at $1780 an ounce and peak late in 2013 at around $1890 an ounce," adds a report from ANZ.

Obama second term: What it means for Africa


Some people on this continent expected more from the son of man who grew up herding goats in a village in western Kenya.

BBC News Africa by Andrew Harding Africa Correspondent -- President Barack Obama made only one, cursory trip to sub-Saharan Africa during his first term, and at the time made it fairly clear that he would not be smothering the continent with attention.

So how much will change in Mr. Obama's second term?

Tuesday, 6 November 2012

London Gold Market Report


US Monetary Policy "Unlikely to Change" Whoever Wins Election, Fiscal Cliff "Could Propel Gold Higher"

BullionVault from Ben Traynor

WHOLESALE MARKET gold prices extended their gains from a day earlier Tuesday, rising above $1690 an ounce in London this morning – 1% up on yesterday's two-month low – while stocks and commodities also ticked higher and US Treasury bonds fell, as voters head to the polls for the US presidential election.

Silver prices climbed to $31.43 an ounce – 2.4% up yesterday's low.

"A Romney victory in the presidential race could push interest rates up," says a note from HSBC, "[while] an Obama re-election could lower them. Lower interest rates historically have helped gold prices and higher rates have been gold-negative."

The Case for Investing in Africa


The continent’s present image creates an opportunity for today’s smaller investor. Once the media’s focus shifts to the positive change in Africa, institutional investors seeking a durable growth opportunity will come calling and investment bargains will become scarce. Just to note: the cover of The Economist Magazine on December 3, 2011 was entitled “Africa Rising,” whereas in May 2000 the same magazine dubbed Africa “the hopeless continent.”
Our Investment Thesis
Africa is the most complex continent on earth and defies simple descriptions. It has one billion of the world’s seven billion people and 20% of the world’s land mass. Behind Asia, it is both the second largest and second most populous continent. It has 54 countries with hundreds of ethnic groups speaking more than one thousand languages. One (mostly) common theme throughout the continent, however, is that the quality of life is improving.
The following themes support our investment thesis for Africa.
Africa is growing rapidly
Africa has immense natural wealth
Africa has favorable demographics (for investors)
Technology is accelerating change in Africa
Africa is joining the global financial system.

Friday, 2 November 2012

Three oil companies set to drill in Somaliland by 2014


Three oil companies are set to begin exploration in Somaliland, making it possible that the break-away state will drill its first well as early as 2014, oil minister Hussein Abdi Dualeh says.
Australia-based Jacka Resources, London-listed Ophir Energy, and Genel Energy, which is headed by former BP chief executive Tony Hayward, will all start extensive exploration activities by early next year.
“There was very low activity for years and now three groups are starting a major exploration programme all at once. 2013 is going to be a big year for us, ushering in the biggest exploration programme that this country has seen in the past 21 years,” Mr Dualeh told This is Africa in a telephone interview. “By 2014 we are hoping to drill our first exploratory well,” he added.
Somaliland, which declared independence from Somalia in 1991 when the central government collapsed, is not internationally recognised as a country, despite operating its own political system, government institutions, and currency. However, investors have been attracted by the country’s geology and a string of hydrocarbon discoveries across East Africa.

London Gold Market Report


Gold, Silver Down Ahead of Jobs Data, Gold in India Hits One-Month Low

SPOT MARKET prices to buy gold in Dollars dropped to below $1710 an ounce Friday morning, reversing gains from earlier in the week, while stocks and commodities fell and the US Dollar rallied ahead of the release of key US jobs data.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is due to publish its monthly 'Employment Situation' report at 08.30 EDT, which will include the official nonfarm payrolls estimate for the number of private sector jobs added in October. Consensus forecast among analysts is for 125,000 jobs added, while the unemployment rate is expected to tick higher to 7.9%, up from 7.8% in September.

Silver prices meantime fell below $32 an ounce this morning, extending losses from the day before. 
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